ABSTRACT
In the absence of effective and adequate vaccines, healthcare decision-makers must rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as lockdown, testing, hospital capacity building, and increasing the number of medical staff to control the outbreak of an infectious disease like COVID-19. This manuscript presents a System Dynamics (SD) model to analyze the healthcare system performance under various NPIs during a pandemic. The proposed model, which extends the commonly-used Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, comprises four sub-models: outbreak, hospital performance, medicine supply, and staff functionality. These sub-models work in harmony to stimulate the impact of NPIs on the disease outbreak pattern and the healthcare system's response to demand surge. The proposed model considers the uncertainty about the nature of the disease, the public's behavior, medicine availability, and medical staff efficiency. The proposed model was applied for the ex-ante evaluation of candidate NPIs adoptable against the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran. Consistent with the reported statistics, the results show that the peak demand can significantly exceed the healthcare system's initial capacity if no action is taken. If simultaneously implemented, lockdown and testing can considerably delay the peak of infections, reduce its magnitude, dampen the hospital demand, and decrease mortality. The proposed model is unique as it determines the extent to which system components (e.g., community, healthcare system, and medicine supply chain) impact the observed outcomes (e.g., morbidity and mortality rates). Its structure is generic and flexible, which facilitates the extension and application of the model to evaluate candidate mitigation policies in various geographical contexts.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The launch in 2017 of the Irish 10-year reform programme Sláintecare represents a key commitment in the future of the health system. An important component of the programme was the development of a health system performance assessment (HSPA) framework. In 2019, the Department of Health of Ireland (DoH) and Health Service Executive (HSE) commissioned the technical support of researchers to develop an outcome-oriented HSPA framework which should reflect the shared priorities of multiple stakeholders, including citizens. This study describes the method applied in the Irish context and reflects on the added value of using a citizen panel in the development of an HSPA framework. METHODS: A panel of 15 citizens was convened, recruited by a third-party company using a sampling strategy to achieve a balanced mix representing the Irish society. Panellists received lay-language preparatory materials before the meeting. Panellists used a three-colour scheme to signal the importance of performance measures. An exit questionnaire was administered to understand how participants experienced being part of the panel. The citizen panel was the first in a series of three panels towards the development of the HSPA framework, followed by panels including representatives of the DoH and HSE, and representatives from professional associations and special interest groups. RESULTS: The citizen panel generated 249 health performance measures ranging across 13 domains. Top-ranking domains to the citizen panel (people-centredness, coordination of care, and coverage) were less prioritized by the other panels; domains less prioritized by the citizen panel, such as accessibility, responsiveness, efficiency, and effectiveness, were of higher priority in the other panels. Citizen panellists shared a similar understanding of what a citizen panel involves and described their experience at the panel as enjoyable, interesting, and informative. CONCLUSIONS: The priorities of the citizen panel were accounted for during all phases of developing the HSPA framework. This was possible by adopting an inclusive development process and by engaging citizens early on. Citizen engagement in HSPA development is essential for realizing citizen-driven healthcare system performance and generating trust and ownership in performance intelligence. Future research could expand the use of citizen panels to assess, monitor, and report on the performance of healthcare systems.